Global odds makers and betting experts have Trump to win nationally by 7.9 points on April 21st. My advice is don’t bet against Vegas or you could lose your shirt and your shoes. Economically, Trump leads Biden by 11 points in national polls on which candidate would better handle the economy (a Whopping 47 percent Trump to 36 percent for Biden).
In new polls, Trump beats Biden by 7 points in North Carolina, Trump is 5 points ahead of Biden in Utah, Trump is even beating Biden in Pennsylvania, and leading in Iowa and many other key battle ground states. Trump also has a solid strength in Ohio and Florida because republican governors decisively won both Florida and Ohio in 2018.
As for this national COVID-19 Coronavirus crisis, here are salient historical points. After the terrorist attacks of 2001, Bush’s popularity soared to over 85%. Similarly, the attack of the corona virus from over our borders has made President Trump a probable national hero for protecting millions of citizens going into the elections. Trump’s early shutting of the borders in January against all the Democrat and Anti-Trump opposition is an undeniable victory. Now, Trump’s opposition continues to demand a shutdown of government, jobs and the economy which is cutting people’s salaries, medical care, and benefits nationwide.
As for Trump’s health advantage, he has been on TV every day for weeks articulately running task force briefings. In contrast, Mr. Biden has suffered 2 brain surgeries in recent years, and Biden is trying to keep up with the pace and energy that President Trump has maintained for 5 years. Biden is 79 years old and like Bernie Sanders and Mike Bloomberg, he has battled various debilitating health problems in recent times.
In 2020, national elections are changing everything. The 2018 elections were tainted by Russian dossiers and propaganda which confused Mueller and investigations with what many called “fake evidence”.
The Mueller report was proven to be soiled by partisans and when Mueller testified, it was a national political disaster for Anti-Trump agitators. Moreover, 2019 saw a politically motivated impeachment ploy fall to pieces because the “hearsay whistleblower” impeached himself by claiming something different than was specified in the transcripts.
For 2020, we finally have a bona fide national election to witness with the President on the ballot who can campaign in tandem with his targeted state candidates. Amusingly, President Trump is running against the only person who has more “long term” political baggage than Bill Clinton and sadly, Mr. Biden has little or no economic track record to run on.
As for domestic and state economic issues, Americans are not going to bail out fat pensions of California or New York because the worker’s pensions in places like: Ohio, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania or Minnesota are much more reasonable than the large un-funded retirement pensions of NY or CA.
President Trump is poised to lift all boats and candidates in his party with the power of his Presidential media complex. Moreover, Senators such as Cory Gardner of Colorado and President Trump are on the ballot the same day. These combinations of state and federal elections with Trump on the ballot on the same day may create synergy for Senators and Congressman and others in similar situations in key battleground states.
Those running for election who demand a long-term shutdown of business and the government creating more and more unemployment will have a tough time with getting elected in 2020.
With the price of oil at historical lows and the Federal Reserve reducing rates to virtual zero, the economy is positioned for a great rebound and comeback, but Anti-Trump forces remain determined to keep the economy shut down. With the new mortality rates coming down to a much lower number closer to the regular flu and herd immunity building across the nation, the USA will re-open soon and the jobs and economy will expand with a boom.